Can they make the playoffs?  Absolutely.  Are they what you’d consider a playoff caliber team?  Don’t think so.

Making the playoffs and being a playoff caliber team are two entirely different things.  Playoff caliber teams can run the ball.  The Packers can’t (they rank 16th in rushing).  Playoff caliber teams don’t lead the league in sacks allowed.  The Packers own that fine distinction.  Rodgers has been sacked 31 times and hit 50.  Does anyone wonder why he hasn’t practiced at all this week?  Playoff caliber teams rush the passer.  The Packers are 28th in the league in sacks.  Playoff caliber teams beat good teams.  The Packers haven’t.  They are 4-3 and the teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 7-23.  Their 3 losses came against 2 teams that have a combined recored of 12-3.

However, after the Vikings and the Saints, the rest of the NFC is up for grabs.  Since the Packers can’t catch the Vikings (unless Favre, Peterson and Allen all break their legs), the Pack is left searching for the wild card berth.  Their competition will most likely come from the NFC East with the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants beating each other up.  If the Packers can beat the Cowboys head to head, combined with the fact that the Packers have upcoming games against the Buccaneers, Lions, Seahawks and Cardinals, the schedule actually plays out nicely for the Pack.  Additionally, they get Balitmore and San Francisco at Lambeau Field. 

When it’s all said and done the Packers should be 9-7 or 10-6 because they’ve proven they can beat bad teams.  All they need to do is sneak up and beat a good team once or twice.  If they don’t make the playoffs this year, they won’t be able to blame the schedule.  They can make the playoffs, but I still don’t think they’re a playoff caliber team.  We’ll see if the old men they’re starting at tackle this week can shore up some of those offensive problems.  Against an 0-7 Tampa Bay team, they should look pretty good.  Against the Cowboys, 49ers and Ravens…we’ll see.

Now that Greg Jennings has gotten a new contract, perhaps the Packers can focus on a new deal for Pro Bowl FS Nick Collins.  Collins showed up for the mandatory minicamp, but clearly is not excited about the $3 million he’ll be making this year.  Now, if my boss came to me and said I had such a great year that I’m going to get a 600% raise over last year, I’d being doing backflips down the hallway.  Unfortunately, in the wide world of sports, that’s just not enough money.

I’ll grant you that a Pro Bowl free safety is worth more — we’re talking professional football players reality now, not the rality most of us live in — than $3M a year.  So, I can see why he’d like to have an extension done.  But, look at what Jennings did to get his.  He showed up and worked his arse off doing what he said he’d do when he signed his contract.  Thompson rewarded his good little soldier with a deal that is front loaded with guaranteed millions.  Other people who were unhappy with their contracts or other things in the organization and complained publicly (Brett Favre, Javon Walker, Mike McKenzie, Corey Williams, Ryan Grant, etc.) are either not there, or they came up short of what they were looking for.  People who showed up and did their jobs (Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Aaron Kampman, etc) all got their extensions for the money they wanted (granted we’ll see if Kampman gets a second extension or not).

I sure hope Nick is taking notes.

I must have some kind of new powerful mojo that I was unaware of.

First, I call out the Brewers hitters for not doing their jobs.  Since that posting the Brewers have been 5-1 and outscored opponents by a margin of 15.  Next, I concede that the Ted Thompson probably won’t listen to me and take Raji and it wouldn’t surprise me that he takes someone else or trades down.  And what does he do?  He not only takes Raji, but trades up to take Matthews. 

Hmm, I must remember this.  These powers need to only be used for the power of good.  Or at least, improving sports in SE Wisconsin.  Now let’s see…what can we do about the Bucks…

Ted Thompson traded up?!?!?  He’s got to stop making these kinds of bold moves and drafting good players.  This is not the Ted Thompson I know.  How can I criticize him if he doesn’t make some kind of serious mistake?

It will be interesting to compare the careers of Clay Matthews and Ron Brace.  The Packers weren’t going to take Brace after getting Raji, but Brace and Raji played next to each other at Boston College and some people were very high on Brace.  Matthews on the other hand worked very hard to make it into the starting lineup at USC as a senior.

My instant analysis?  The Pack still has 6 picks left today, but I’d have a hard time figuring out how they could have gotten better players at positions of need than they did.  Matthews still needs some work on his game given his lack of experience, but he has the tools to become that other starting outside linebacker.  He’s a smart football player.  Ted likes those guys.  Raji should make an instant impact.  He and Pickett can rotate so they’re both fresh.  On passing downs when the Pack switches to the 4-3, you could have both 330 pounders in the middle collapsing the pocket.

The defense looks better today than yesterday.  Ted did a prettty darn good job on Saturday.  Let’s hope he keeps it up today.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t take a punter in the 6th or 7th round.  There are some decent TE’s and OG’s left in the draft and mostly prospects at OT that need some work or a kick in the pants.  There is still some depth talent out there on defense, espcially in the defensive backfield.  Let’s see what Ted ends up with.

Now what do I do?  If the pick doesn’t work out, I can’t call Thompson an idiot.  It’s much harder to be a critic when someone agrees with you.  I think Raji was the right pick here.  Although, I didn’t expect Crabtree to be available here.  I wouldn’t have beat Thompson up to much if he would’ve tried to team up Jennings and Crabtree for the next 10 years.

All I can say is, well done Ted.  I’ll provide a more in depth review of all of the Saturday and Sunday picks in the next few days,

The local sports radio morning guys asked an interesting question this morning, “Do you trust Ted Thompson with the draft?”  Why do I find it interesting?  Well, I’m not the biggest Ted supporter in the world.  I think there are 3 tools at your disposal when building a team in the NFL:

1. The draft
2. Trades
3. Free Agency

Ted seems to try to see if he can build a team using #1 only.  Why would you do that?  But, its a good thing for Ted he’s pretty decent at that option otherwise he’d be unemployed.

So, do I trust him?  Yep.  Except for the first round maybe.  Aaron Rodgers was a gift that he was smart enough not to screw up.  I remember listening to that draft on the radio when it became the Packers pick.  I was actually standing in my yard with a shovel full of dirt shouting at the radio, “You better take Rodgers!”  He did, and I calmed down.  Next came A.J. Hawk.  He was a safe pick.  Someone who could start for your team for a long time, but he never looked like he’d be special.  He continues to look that way.  A top five draft pick needs to be special or you didn’t get enough value for your pick.  Next up, Justin Harrell.  Well, so far the 2,000+ folks in the Lambeau Atrium who booed Thompson when he drafted him appear to have been right.  Last year, Thompson got wiser and traded out of the first round lest he screw up another first round pick.

Which brings us to this year.  I’ve stated that I’d like to see them draft Raji.  I know there might be some character/motivation concerns there but he’s upside is tremendous and that’s what you’re looking for drafting high and paying that big salary before they ever step foot on a field.  No risk, no reward.

But, if I had to pick I think Thompson will take one of Everette Brown, Andre Smith, or Tyson Jackson.  I know Jackson has the perfect body to play DE in the 3-4, but in that scheme it’s generally not a position you spend a lot of money on.  Plus, a month ago no one knew who he was and he suddenly comes flying up the boards?  Those guys always scare me because they tend to be “look like Tarzan, play like Jane” workout warriors with great measurables.  It’s the exception that those guys can actually play at the next level.  Brown is a defensive lineman from Florida State.  Maybe switching him to an OLB in the 3-4 might be a way to get around that schools history of bad D-linemen in the NFL.

But, if it came down to those guys I’d take Smith.  He fits a need at tackle and started three years in the SEC.  I know, he showed up way out of shape at the combine and left early.  He needs to grow up a bit.  But, the SEC is not an easy place to play OT, and he started there for 3 years and did a pretty darn good job doing it.  He’s a RT in the NFL and I think he’s better than any option the Packers currently have on their roster.  And remember folks, you build from the line out, not the other way around.

So, there’s my pick, Andre Smith RT from Alabama.  Although, I’d be happier if they took B.J. Raji, DT from Boston College.  Tune in tomorrow around 4:15 when the Pack makes their pick and see if I’m anywhere in the ball park.

You know, the CIA could probably learn a lesson or two from Ted Thompson on how to play things close to the vest.  Does anybody have a clue what he’s going to do?  Trade down?  What and see what’s available at #9 when it gets to him?  Trade up?  BWAHAHAHA!  Sorry, I forgot who I was tlaking about.  Of course he won’t trade up.

I guess I don’t see him trading out of #9 unless someone gives up a lot.  Top 10 picks are the kinds of picks that can have immediate impact and acquire top flight players for a team without spending a ton in free agency.  Since we know how much Ted hates that, I figure he’ll stay at #9 unless someone dangles a mighty big carrot in front of Ted’s face. 

Personally, I’d like to see them take B.J. Raji if he’s available.  Maualuga would be a nice pick except they’re paying 2 ILB’s a lot of dough already, even if they will be a bit mistcast in the new defense.  Curry won’t be available when they pick, but he’d be perfect.  I’ve got nothing against Everette Brown except I still get the Jamal Reynolds shakes whenever I hear DE and Florida State in the same sentence.  Orakpo produced in college, but will he in the pros?  Most scouts think so, and I’ve got no reason to go against them. How about 1 of the 3 OT’s?  We could use one or 2 of those as well.

So, who knows where Ted will go?  On the plus side, the Packers have enough needs to sit back and let the draft come to them.  They should be able to get a good player and fill a need if they’ve evaluated guys correctly and shouldn’t feel the need to reach.  The fun starts in 5 days.  Here’s the latest Sporting News update on the Packers Picks:

• B.J. Raji – DT Boston College
• A. Maybin – DE Penn State
• C. Brown – OLB UConn
• P. Loadholt – T Oklahoma
• C. Coffman – TE Missouri
• C. Baker – DT Hampton
• T. Bright – G BYU
• J. Iglesias – WR Oklahoma
• M. Shaughnessy – DE Wisconsin

If that’s how it all worked out, that would be pretty impressive.  The first 3 picks could contribute in a big way.  Coffman could follow his papa to the Pack and I think they’d benefit.  The only other kid I’ve seen play is Shaughnessy.  He could fit in as the typical nameless 3-4 DE who takes up blockers.  The others all play positions of need with the exception of Iglesias.  But, remember how Wolf always drafted a CB and QB in every draft?  Maybe Thompson feels the same need with WR’s.

It’ll be a load of fun.  I’ll send out one more update before the draft and my initial takes on the picks after the draft.  Like I’m some expert or something, eh?

Former Packer Matt Bowen writes articles for The National Football Post and has this article posted on Packer Chatters.  He highlights some positions of need for the Packers and some players he thinks would fit the bill and be available when the Packers pick at #9.  He seems to have confidence in Kampman and wants to take a wait and see approach with Aaron Rodgers.  I’m going to flip those opinions, but the positions of most need seem accurate to me.  It all starts up front and we need help on DL and OL.

Updated today – The Sporting News has modified the Packers picks in their 7 round mock draft from the last one I posted for you.  Not much to get excited about.  Instead of the Packers taking Hawaii’s DE in the 3rd round with the Jets pick, they have them taking Ryan Mouton a CB from Hawaii.  (Maybe the Sporting News guys just like Hawaii)  Maybe with their scheme switch he could play, but the guys only 5′ 9″.  Terrell Buckley or Ahmad Carroll ring a bell anyone?

The other change is the Packer’s 6th round pick.  Instead of a tackle from Tennessee that you might have heard of if you’re a huge Tennessee fan, they have the Pack taking a tackle from Houston that you probably never heard of.  In fact, TSN’s scouting report basically says the guy’s go no chance of making it in the pros, but he’s really big.  Hmm, now I feel better about him.

The draft is only a couple of weeks away.  Are you getting excited yet?  I can’t wait to evaluate the actual picks versus all these pretend picks. 

BTW – the Green Bay Press-Gazette lists the Packers biggest needs as DE, OT, and OLB.  I think that’s pretty close, but I might be more inclined to worry about DT given how thing they are there.  Here’s to hoping against hope that Justin Harrell will be able to move to DE and be much more successful at that then DE.

Lastly, the Mock Draft Muncher has the Packers taking DE Everette Brown.  9 mocks have him listed while 8 have B.J. Raji listed followed by Brian Orakpo (7) and Malcom Jenkins (5).  They have Wells going to the Eagles with the 21st pick.

I’ve given up looking at free agent prospects.  BTW – the Pack signed an offensive lineman named Duke Preston from Buffalo.  Feel like we’re going to the Super Bowl?

Anyhoo, TSN has their 7 round mock draft up and they’ve got all 9 Packers picks laid out for you.  What’s interesting is that after switching to the 3-4 they have the Packers taking 5 defensive players and 4 offensive players.  Beanie Wells (RB – OSU), Cody Brown (OLB – UConn), Ron Brace (the other DT -Boston College), David Veikune (DE – Hawaii), Cornellius Ingram (TE – Florida), Alex Magee (DT – Purdue), Ramon Foster (T – Tennessee), Ray Feinga (G – BYU) and lastly Julius Williams (OLB – UConn).

Of that list only Wells and Brown could make any kind of real impact this year.  Brace could become a good nose tackle but it might take a year or two.  Ingram is coming off ACL surgery, Magee seems to take plays off, Williams is switching from DE — and he isn’t as physically talented for the switch as his teammate Brown — and Veikune projects as a career 3rd DE and special teams player.

Now, getting a 1 round mock draft right is almost impossible, so 7 rounds is mathematically certain to be incorrect.  But, I sure hope the Pack gets more contributions from this draft class.  Why?  Well, since the Bears just traded everything to get Cutler, the Vikings have Peterson, a defense, and Rosenfels could shore up the QB spot, leaving the Packers with relatively the same team that went 6-10 to compete against them.  Thompson isn’t going to sign anybody else with any kind of impact and that leaves the draft.

Now, do you feel like we’re going to the Super Bowl?