Can they make the playoffs?  Absolutely.  Are they what you’d consider a playoff caliber team?  Don’t think so.

Making the playoffs and being a playoff caliber team are two entirely different things.  Playoff caliber teams can run the ball.  The Packers can’t (they rank 16th in rushing).  Playoff caliber teams don’t lead the league in sacks allowed.  The Packers own that fine distinction.  Rodgers has been sacked 31 times and hit 50.  Does anyone wonder why he hasn’t practiced at all this week?  Playoff caliber teams rush the passer.  The Packers are 28th in the league in sacks.  Playoff caliber teams beat good teams.  The Packers haven’t.  They are 4-3 and the teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 7-23.  Their 3 losses came against 2 teams that have a combined recored of 12-3.

However, after the Vikings and the Saints, the rest of the NFC is up for grabs.  Since the Packers can’t catch the Vikings (unless Favre, Peterson and Allen all break their legs), the Pack is left searching for the wild card berth.  Their competition will most likely come from the NFC East with the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants beating each other up.  If the Packers can beat the Cowboys head to head, combined with the fact that the Packers have upcoming games against the Buccaneers, Lions, Seahawks and Cardinals, the schedule actually plays out nicely for the Pack.  Additionally, they get Balitmore and San Francisco at Lambeau Field. 

When it’s all said and done the Packers should be 9-7 or 10-6 because they’ve proven they can beat bad teams.  All they need to do is sneak up and beat a good team once or twice.  If they don’t make the playoffs this year, they won’t be able to blame the schedule.  They can make the playoffs, but I still don’t think they’re a playoff caliber team.  We’ll see if the old men they’re starting at tackle this week can shore up some of those offensive problems.  Against an 0-7 Tampa Bay team, they should look pretty good.  Against the Cowboys, 49ers and Ravens…we’ll see.

I’ve been busy lately, and thus the month long absence of posts.  But, leave it to the players of the NFL to provide some tragedy in the off season to be post fodder.

I ripped Michael Vick when he was caught with the dog fighting and the interstate gambling.  And you know what?  He deserved every bit of it.  Now he’s done his time and wants to play in the NFL again.  Fine.  You did your time and served your debt to society.  If you can find a team that wants to endure the media circus that will follow your re-entry into the NFL, go for it.  Let’s face it folks, their will be a media circus.  The President swatted a fly and PETA is calling it an “execution”.  What do you think they’ll do to Mr. Vick?

Which brings me to Donte Stallworth.  Can someone explain to me how you can be responsible for killing another human being and you get 30 days in jail?  Michael Vick got a couple of years for his crimes, and he should have been.  A love dogs as much as anyone, but Stallworth killed a human being and has to serve 4% of the time Vick did?  A father, brother, son, friend, etc. was taken out of this world because Stallworth was too stupid to get a driver, call a cab, walk home, or not drink so damn much in the first place.  That equals 30 days?!?!  I’ve heard people say that he did the right things afterward, like staying on the scene, dialing 911, apologizing to the family and his insurance company came up with a monetary settlement for the family.  So, to sum things up, apparently if you have enough moneyand fame, you can kill someone but as long as you say you’re sorry and part with some of your money, you don’t have to do any real time.  Remember he’s going to jail not federal prison.

Dogs vs. people?  Perhaps Lady Justice really should take off that blindfold once in a while.  Fortunately, Rodger “The Hammer” Goodell has the opportunity to bring a small bit of sense to this whole thing.  He kicked PacMan Jones out of the league.  He suspended Tank Johnson.  He’s tried very hard to clean up the image of football players and the NFL by making them responsible for their actions off the field.  Vick got what he deserved, and Stallworth deserved more than Vick.  My only hope is that Goodell sticks to his precedent and Stallworth doesn’t see a football field for a while.  He shouldn’t be a free man, but some punishment is better than none.

Ted Thompson traded up?!?!?  He’s got to stop making these kinds of bold moves and drafting good players.  This is not the Ted Thompson I know.  How can I criticize him if he doesn’t make some kind of serious mistake?

It will be interesting to compare the careers of Clay Matthews and Ron Brace.  The Packers weren’t going to take Brace after getting Raji, but Brace and Raji played next to each other at Boston College and some people were very high on Brace.  Matthews on the other hand worked very hard to make it into the starting lineup at USC as a senior.

My instant analysis?  The Pack still has 6 picks left today, but I’d have a hard time figuring out how they could have gotten better players at positions of need than they did.  Matthews still needs some work on his game given his lack of experience, but he has the tools to become that other starting outside linebacker.  He’s a smart football player.  Ted likes those guys.  Raji should make an instant impact.  He and Pickett can rotate so they’re both fresh.  On passing downs when the Pack switches to the 4-3, you could have both 330 pounders in the middle collapsing the pocket.

The defense looks better today than yesterday.  Ted did a prettty darn good job on Saturday.  Let’s hope he keeps it up today.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t take a punter in the 6th or 7th round.  There are some decent TE’s and OG’s left in the draft and mostly prospects at OT that need some work or a kick in the pants.  There is still some depth talent out there on defense, espcially in the defensive backfield.  Let’s see what Ted ends up with.

The local sports radio morning guys asked an interesting question this morning, “Do you trust Ted Thompson with the draft?”  Why do I find it interesting?  Well, I’m not the biggest Ted supporter in the world.  I think there are 3 tools at your disposal when building a team in the NFL:

1. The draft
2. Trades
3. Free Agency

Ted seems to try to see if he can build a team using #1 only.  Why would you do that?  But, its a good thing for Ted he’s pretty decent at that option otherwise he’d be unemployed.

So, do I trust him?  Yep.  Except for the first round maybe.  Aaron Rodgers was a gift that he was smart enough not to screw up.  I remember listening to that draft on the radio when it became the Packers pick.  I was actually standing in my yard with a shovel full of dirt shouting at the radio, “You better take Rodgers!”  He did, and I calmed down.  Next came A.J. Hawk.  He was a safe pick.  Someone who could start for your team for a long time, but he never looked like he’d be special.  He continues to look that way.  A top five draft pick needs to be special or you didn’t get enough value for your pick.  Next up, Justin Harrell.  Well, so far the 2,000+ folks in the Lambeau Atrium who booed Thompson when he drafted him appear to have been right.  Last year, Thompson got wiser and traded out of the first round lest he screw up another first round pick.

Which brings us to this year.  I’ve stated that I’d like to see them draft Raji.  I know there might be some character/motivation concerns there but he’s upside is tremendous and that’s what you’re looking for drafting high and paying that big salary before they ever step foot on a field.  No risk, no reward.

But, if I had to pick I think Thompson will take one of Everette Brown, Andre Smith, or Tyson Jackson.  I know Jackson has the perfect body to play DE in the 3-4, but in that scheme it’s generally not a position you spend a lot of money on.  Plus, a month ago no one knew who he was and he suddenly comes flying up the boards?  Those guys always scare me because they tend to be “look like Tarzan, play like Jane” workout warriors with great measurables.  It’s the exception that those guys can actually play at the next level.  Brown is a defensive lineman from Florida State.  Maybe switching him to an OLB in the 3-4 might be a way to get around that schools history of bad D-linemen in the NFL.

But, if it came down to those guys I’d take Smith.  He fits a need at tackle and started three years in the SEC.  I know, he showed up way out of shape at the combine and left early.  He needs to grow up a bit.  But, the SEC is not an easy place to play OT, and he started there for 3 years and did a pretty darn good job doing it.  He’s a RT in the NFL and I think he’s better than any option the Packers currently have on their roster.  And remember folks, you build from the line out, not the other way around.

So, there’s my pick, Andre Smith RT from Alabama.  Although, I’d be happier if they took B.J. Raji, DT from Boston College.  Tune in tomorrow around 4:15 when the Pack makes their pick and see if I’m anywhere in the ball park.

You know, the CIA could probably learn a lesson or two from Ted Thompson on how to play things close to the vest.  Does anybody have a clue what he’s going to do?  Trade down?  What and see what’s available at #9 when it gets to him?  Trade up?  BWAHAHAHA!  Sorry, I forgot who I was tlaking about.  Of course he won’t trade up.

I guess I don’t see him trading out of #9 unless someone gives up a lot.  Top 10 picks are the kinds of picks that can have immediate impact and acquire top flight players for a team without spending a ton in free agency.  Since we know how much Ted hates that, I figure he’ll stay at #9 unless someone dangles a mighty big carrot in front of Ted’s face. 

Personally, I’d like to see them take B.J. Raji if he’s available.  Maualuga would be a nice pick except they’re paying 2 ILB’s a lot of dough already, even if they will be a bit mistcast in the new defense.  Curry won’t be available when they pick, but he’d be perfect.  I’ve got nothing against Everette Brown except I still get the Jamal Reynolds shakes whenever I hear DE and Florida State in the same sentence.  Orakpo produced in college, but will he in the pros?  Most scouts think so, and I’ve got no reason to go against them. How about 1 of the 3 OT’s?  We could use one or 2 of those as well.

So, who knows where Ted will go?  On the plus side, the Packers have enough needs to sit back and let the draft come to them.  They should be able to get a good player and fill a need if they’ve evaluated guys correctly and shouldn’t feel the need to reach.  The fun starts in 5 days.  Here’s the latest Sporting News update on the Packers Picks:

• B.J. Raji – DT Boston College
• A. Maybin – DE Penn State
• C. Brown – OLB UConn
• P. Loadholt – T Oklahoma
• C. Coffman – TE Missouri
• C. Baker – DT Hampton
• T. Bright – G BYU
• J. Iglesias – WR Oklahoma
• M. Shaughnessy – DE Wisconsin

If that’s how it all worked out, that would be pretty impressive.  The first 3 picks could contribute in a big way.  Coffman could follow his papa to the Pack and I think they’d benefit.  The only other kid I’ve seen play is Shaughnessy.  He could fit in as the typical nameless 3-4 DE who takes up blockers.  The others all play positions of need with the exception of Iglesias.  But, remember how Wolf always drafted a CB and QB in every draft?  Maybe Thompson feels the same need with WR’s.

It’ll be a load of fun.  I’ll send out one more update before the draft and my initial takes on the picks after the draft.  Like I’m some expert or something, eh?

Updated today – The Sporting News has modified the Packers picks in their 7 round mock draft from the last one I posted for you.  Not much to get excited about.  Instead of the Packers taking Hawaii’s DE in the 3rd round with the Jets pick, they have them taking Ryan Mouton a CB from Hawaii.  (Maybe the Sporting News guys just like Hawaii)  Maybe with their scheme switch he could play, but the guys only 5′ 9″.  Terrell Buckley or Ahmad Carroll ring a bell anyone?

The other change is the Packer’s 6th round pick.  Instead of a tackle from Tennessee that you might have heard of if you’re a huge Tennessee fan, they have the Pack taking a tackle from Houston that you probably never heard of.  In fact, TSN’s scouting report basically says the guy’s go no chance of making it in the pros, but he’s really big.  Hmm, now I feel better about him.

The draft is only a couple of weeks away.  Are you getting excited yet?  I can’t wait to evaluate the actual picks versus all these pretend picks. 

BTW – the Green Bay Press-Gazette lists the Packers biggest needs as DE, OT, and OLB.  I think that’s pretty close, but I might be more inclined to worry about DT given how thing they are there.  Here’s to hoping against hope that Justin Harrell will be able to move to DE and be much more successful at that then DE.

Lastly, the Mock Draft Muncher has the Packers taking DE Everette Brown.  9 mocks have him listed while 8 have B.J. Raji listed followed by Brian Orakpo (7) and Malcom Jenkins (5).  They have Wells going to the Eagles with the 21st pick.

Malcolm Jenkins is a CB from Ohio State who surprised many by staying with the Buckeyes in 2008 rather than going Pro.  He has a rare size/speed/quickness combination for a CB.  He’s over 6 feet tall, runs a 4.4 40 and is almost 20o pounds.  He tackles well, he’ll come up and smack people in the running game, and he can turn and run with anybody.  If he can eliminate the mental mistakes from his game he has the physical traits to be a shut down corner in the NFL.  His problems tend to be mental.  He just doesn’t make as many plays on the ball as you would expect from a guy with his physical talents.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s still the best cornerback available in this draft, but he wouldn’t even be available for the Packers at #9 if he had tightened up his mental part of the game.

How would he fit in for the Packers?  Well, that’s hard to predict.  He’s good at playing a physical corner like Woodson and Harris currently play, and they’re not getting any younger.  But, with the switch to the 3-4 you’re likely to see more zone coverage in the defensive backfield so I’m not sure if he would fit that scheme or not.  Given this is the ninth overall pick, I don’t think you use it on a CB if you’re going to play a lot of cover 2.  He’s got the talent to warrant that high of a pick, but I’d rather the Packers select someone else with this pick and address CB in a later round.

Now is when all of the  so called draft experts come out of the woodwork and tell you who your team is going to pick.  Ever notice how wrong they usually are?  Oh, they’ll get a couple of the top picks correct, but with the information available today, my dog could probably do that (he’s pretty smart).

But, I have a link for you that might actually be worth checking in on from time to time.  It’s been around for a while in a version from a Cleveland Browns fan site for a few years, but the new and improved Mock Draft Muncher can be found here.

You’ll notice that it aggregates a whole slew of mock drafts from the web to give you the consensus pick at that draft position as well as the other players getting top votes.  So, for the Pack at #9, the consensus is B. J. Raji, the massive DT out of Boston College.  Yet, you’ll also see players such as Malcolm Jenkins, Everette Brown and Aaron Curry.  So, I tell you what, I’ll spend the next few days digging up as much info as I can on these guys and post it here.  Then, when draft day comes, armed with all this info, you’ll be shocked and amazed when Thompson trades down a few picks and takes Chris Wells.

If you’re not, its another game with some cool commercials.  Perhaps if you’re a big enough football fan it doesn’t matter who is playing – you’ve got your party, friends are coming over and you’ll be glued to every play on the TV.  Most folks I’ve talked to are looking at it as just another game – not too many Cardinals or Steelers fans in these parts.  Mostly Packers fans and you might find a Bears or Vikings fan if you look hard enough.

So, I’ll just make a quick prediction – Cardinals 27, Steelers 20.  I know Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league (you Packer fans might want to watch how a 3-4 defense is supposed to be played), but the Cardinals have been riding a hot streak much like the Giants did last year.   Last year I made the mistake of picking the experienced team, so this year I’ll take the one that’s peaking at the right time.  (Although, maybe I should be picking be the best defense)

Hmm, maybe ol’ Grey Beard can still play, eh?  On top of that, Aaron Rodgers has an injured shoulder.  Let’s see, Rodgers is hurt, Grant can’t seem to run, and half of the defense is injured.  Things sure look bright for the Pack.  I guess the team is really going with youth movement now.  Perhaps Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm are too inexperienced to get flustered.  Sometimes ignorance can really be bliss.

Oh, and by the way, this is for the local morning sports talk show who banned talking about Aaron Rodgers as injury prone since it was “ludicrous”.  3 years, 3 injuries, and more missed time.  How’s that crow tasting, guys?  But, I shouldn’t be too hard on Doug Russell & Mike Wickett.  Trying to predict the future with your opinions is fraught with crow-under-glass.  Just check this one out.  By the way guys, Doesn’t it taste like chicken?