Posted by: dasportsguy | March 14, 2008

Statistics never tell the whole story

This article from Forbes is the reason you just can’t trust  statistics.  (You may want to skip the intro screen they’ll splash up there)

One statistic says employers slashed jobs in February by more than any other month for the last 5 years.  The next stat says the unemployment rate went down.  Huh?  How is that possible?  More people let go by companies, and yet there are less people unemployed?  Did these people just evaporate?

Well, the folks that track the unemployment rate — you know that number Dubya likes to quote all the time to show how great the economy is — don’t put all of the unemployed people on there.  Yep, that’s right.  It doesn’t track all of the people who aren’t working.  Folks who have used up their unemployment eligiblity for instance.  Folks who have gone back to school after not being able to find a job.  Folks who have simply given up in despair.  It merely tracks people who are getting unemployment checks.

Wouldn’t it be far more useful to track the employment rate?  If the number of employed Americans goes up, shouldn’t there be less people unemployed and vice versa?  That’s why I’m inclined to use that first statistic as a better measure of how the economy is doing.  Wait, I’m sorry that’s another statistic isn’t?


Responses

  1. Yeah, I’ve always loved the employment statistics. You have to really understand how they are calculated to understand them. It is similar to all the economic stats the government puts outs you can always find a number to support your position. Like Bush going on about average real wages (discounted for inflation) going up. It’s true on average but if you turn the page you find those making more than $120000 a year having seen their real income soar while all the other categories have seen theirs not move or go down. So while the average wage went up the average person saw their real wage go down. You do have to love statistics.


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